CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30619/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T03:51Z (-4.53h, +3.4h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/09 09:15Z Plane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 15:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction POS Difference: 2:10 POS Midpoint: 14:35Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:20 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.99 Travel Time: ~7.99 * 5:20 = 42:36 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-11T03:51Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/09 13:47ZLead Time: 40.40 hour(s)
Difference: 5.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-09T17:06Z
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